Archive of payroll jobs outlook discussion:

March 2005 -- The February Employment Report: The strong increase in payroll
employment by 262,000 jobs in February continued the solid jobs gains observed for most
of the past year and a half. Payroll employment has increased by 3 million jobs since
May of 2003 -- the trough of the payroll employment series following the recession. The
unemployment rate rose slightly to 5. 4 percent from 5. 2 percent in January.

All in all, the report is a good one -- continued solid growth in jobs --
but not too strong of a report that would rattle financial markets because of concerns
that the Fed would have to raise interest rates faster or more than previously expected.
The low wage growth numbers in the report helped to alleviate concerns in financial
markets about inflationary pressures. In fact, the bond and stock markets rallied following
the report.

Because of revisions to the December data, the report also provides "final" information on
the performance of payroll jobs relative to projection ranges that were made in October
2003 (before any solid evidence of payroll jobs growth had even been observed). The chart
at right shows that the actual payroll jobs
performance is almost exactly in the middle of the projection ranges -- actually slightly
better than the middle (in the 57th percentile). That is an incredibly accurate
projection for the payroll jobs performance of the past year -- a projection made before
any solid evidence of jobs growth had occurred.

The previous month's report (for January, released in February) had included the benchmark
revisions for the March 2003 to March 2004 period. Jobs growth in the revised data was
higher than previously reported -- by about 200,000 jobs. The payroll jobs
level in January 2005 is now higher -- by 119,000 than it was in January 2001 when President
Bush took office.

Last month's report al